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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still